Studies related to the residential market.
Work-from-home and jobs: effects on the housing market
Our paper in Munkaerőpiaci Tükör
We summarize the effects of the spread of work-from-home arrangements on the housing market based on international research and experience. Then we proceed to examine the connection of work-from-home and the “doughnut effect” in the context of the Budapest housing market.
Our paper was reviewed by portfolio.hu.
The effect of VAT hikes on the market of newly built condos
ELTINGA policy brief
The VAT rates on the newly built flats have been modified several times in the recent years. In 2019 there was considerable uncertainty whether the reduced 5% rate would live on in 2020 or it reverts back to the normal rate of 27%. We have been approached with a number of questions on this topic by our partners so we prepared this policy brief that we kept updating as time went on.
Cultural heritage and real estate prices
The effect of cultural heritage on housing prices and architectural quality on hotels
Funded by the Norwegian Financial Mechanism, the Forster Centre for National Heritage and Management through commissioned us to prepare a report on the real estate effect of cultural heritage. Us being the first to study this in the Hungarian context, we approached the topic from various angles: we used both case studies and the quantitative methods to get a better idea of the interplay between cultural heritage and real estate prices, including emblematic locations such as the Palace Gresham, Gozsdu udvarról and the Wekerle Estates.
What can lead to a U-turn on the housing market
Our post on the blog Defacto
Defacto is a blog that publishes facts on the economy of Hungary and the region. It is edited by researchers of the Economics Department of Central European University. The post of Áron Horváth enumerates the factors that can lead to increasing house prices.
Takarék/FHB House Price Index (2009-)
Analyses are continuously appeared related to FHB Index , in which we take part as the exclusive research partner of the FHB Index
We developed and established the FHB House Price Index, and calculate new values on a quarterly basis. The index is based on the international standards of the hedonic method. Previous analyses can be downloaded from the website of the FHB Index.
Otthontérkép
Online application
Otthontérkép is a search engine for homes in Hungary, where users could access to different information regarding the chosen home’s neighborhood. ELTINGA has actively participated in the development of Otthontérkép.
The end of the golden age of suburbia?
Opinion column on the recent agglomeration trends at Portfolio.hu
Between the two censuses of 2001 and 2011 Hungary lost about 250 thousand people, around 2.6% of its population. This population loss is not distributed evenly around the country. We review and clarify some of the received wisdom on this trend, both for the country writ large and for the capital in particular. Our column is available here.
House prices: looking back 25 years
Our article at Portfolio.hu
Using earlier studies and our FHB index, we give an overview of the evolution of house prices over the past 25 years.
Our article is available after a registration here.
Conference presentation and paper: Explaining changes in transaction volumes in Hungarian settlements during the crisis
Presentation and paper for the ERES 2013 Conference
We presented our paper on the evolution of transaction volumes at the European Real Estate Society’s annual conference in Vienna.
How does an increase in energy efficiency affect housing prices? A case study of a renovation
Presentation and paper for the ERES 2013 Conference
We presented ELTINGA’s Working Paper 2013/1 at the European Real Estate Society’s annual conference in Vienna
Sápi Zoltán: Residential suburbanization and suburban settlement types in the Budapest agglomeration
MSc thesis at the Geography program at ELTE
Post-1990 the Budapest agglomeration saw a marked increase in the inflow of residents from Budapest leading to a high degree of suburbanization. This study examines the spatial differences of and the drivers behind suburbanization and using multivariable statistical methods it classifies suburban areas based on various factors affecting their popularity.
Lili Márk: The Effect of Highways on Nearby Residential Property Prices in Hungary
MA thesis in the CEU Economics MA Program
This thesis analyzes the effect of the new sectors of highway M6 on the nearby residential property prices using the difference-in-differences method. In particular I compare prices between 2008 and 2011. My treatment group consists of those properties that are at most 10 km away from the highway and the control group includes all properties further away but for which highway M6 is the closest highway route. I find that the selling price of properties in the treatment group after the opening of the highway is around 11-15% higher compared to the control group. Using a restricted sample without the two big county capitals in my sample (Pécs and Szekszárd) I find that the “highway premium” is even higher being around 24-27%. I also estimate continuous treatment models that yield much less robust results.
Housing market through the economic lens
Invited guest in the talk show “Kovács Ádám hangpostája” at Radio Tilos
Beliefs and misconceptions about the housing market. Are we better off with mandatory energy efficiency labels on homes or is just an extra tax on home sellers? Are house prices going to rise in Hungary just because they are lower than in Western Europe? Our colleagues, Aliz McLean Aliz and Áront Horváth were invited to the economics programme of Radio Tilos to comment.
Retrofitting for energy efficiency: lower maintenance and value growth
Our article on home retrofitting on portfolio.hu
This article is based on the working paper 2013/1. Faluház: the evaluation of an energy efficiency pilot project, available here.
Horváth Áron: Pre-Crisis Developments in the Hungarian Housing Market [2011]
Talk at Real Estate Forecasting Workshop, Helmut-Schmidt Universität, Hamburg, Germany.
The talk gives an overview of the last ten years of the the Hungarian housing market through the lens of an analytical model.
Farkas Miklós: Housing Demand and Demographic Trends: Evidence from Hungary [2011]
Award winning MA thesis in the CEU Economics MA Program
This paper investigates the demand for housing in Hungary, focusing on the consequences of a contracting age structure. Demographic trends can influence demand in two ways, namely, by changing total population and by changing age structure. The study first introduces the baseline model of housing demand and then estimates it using panel econometric techniques. Age structure is proxied by the share of young adults in the population and is added to the model as a demand shifter. The results suggest that the price and income elasticities of housing demand are at least one third (in absolute value), while even cautious estimates suggest that shrinking population and aging will, ceteris paribus, cause real house prices to decrease by 10% in the present decade.
A problem to tackle. Ways to improve the livelihood of people with autism [2011]
Policy brief edited by AURA
Our financial analysis contributes to a comparative study focusing on improving the access to homes for people living with autism.
Miklós Farkas, Áron Horváth and János Vincze. Agent-based learning in a Wheatonian housing market [2010]
Conference paper for the 4th annual meeting of the Hungarian Economic Association
Farkas Miklós – Horváth Áron – Vincze János: Ágens alapú tanulás a lakáspiac Wheaton-féle modelljében [2010]
Konferenciatanulmány a Magyar Közgazdaságtudományi Egyesület IV. éves konferenciájára.
Modelling turnover on housing markets is a challenging task for researchers. In this paper we tackle this problem explicitly using and an agent-based approach.
Áron Horváth: The demand for residential rental properties in Hungary [2010]
Keynote talk at Portfolio.hu Property Investment Forum.
Lack of supply is often quoted as the main reason why the market of residential rental properties is so underdeveloped. In this talk we argued for the exact opposite and named missing demand as the key reason.
Miklós Farkas and Áron Horváth: How many homes should Hungary build? [2010]
Policy brief published on portfolio.hu
Experts often quote a target of forty thousand new homes per annum. We beg to differ. In this brief we offer some new angles on this old problem.
Áron Horváth and Gyöngyi Körmendi: Changes in domestic housing prices [2009].
Background Study of the National Bank of Hungary’s (MNB) Report on Financal Stability 2009
From the newly published FHB index it can be seen that from the beginning of the century until the end of 2008 Hungarian real estate prices increased in real terms by 15%. Available information suggests that prices stagnated during the last quarter of 2008 and there was a mild decrease of about 6% in prices in the first half of 2009. Since the global financial crisis the decrease in domestic real estate prices can be said to be moderate in international comparison. Mainly Baltic states experienced extreme declines in housing prices besides Bulgaria, Ukraine and some developed countries.
Áron Horváth and Judit Székely: Application of the Hedonic Method Determining Prices of Used Real Estates [2009].
Hungarian Statistical Review, 6: 594-607, 2009.
The authors examine alternative hedonic techniques for calculating price indices of existing homes. Three indices are presented based on transactions of 2001–2008. Although few attributes are available in the database, significant composition effects can be filtered out with the used hedonic methods. The authors find negligible differences among indices calculated by these techniques.
Áron Horváth: On the Methodology of Real Estate Price Indexes [2007].
Hungarian Statistical Review, 3: 213-239, 2007.
This article surveys the methodology of creating a house-price index. Descriptive statistics, repeated sales, hedonic prices, hybrid indices and sales appraisal ratios are studied. The methods are presented with British and U.S. examples. To foster the development of Hungarian house-price indices, detailed comparisons of the various indices are given. It seems that there is not much digression in the long run trends of different indices, however the difference is significant in the short run. This general statement is demonstrated on a Hungarian database collected from advertisements. In conclusion, in order to develop house price indices one must collect a careful and detailed database. Then, more than one index, based on different methodologies, should be constructed and publishe
Dániel Erdélyi and Áron Horváth: On increasing house prices [2007].
Külgazdaság, 9-10: 19-40, 2007.
House prices increased substantially around the world between 1995 and 2008. The macroeconomic interpretation of the real estate market gained ground in the past 15 years. We identify the main causes of the trend and more importantly we give an overview of the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the real estate market
Áron Horváth and János Vincze: Recent Developments in the Hungarian Housing Market; A Model with Quality Differential [2007].
Working paper for the first annual conference of the Hungarian Society of Economics
In this paper we study the developments of the Hungarian home market. We show that the global house price boom was present in Hungary and the price increase can be explained by the increase of income, the softening credit constraints and the installation of the governmental subsidy system. We complement the observation of the recent halt of the house price rise with the further rise of the better quality homes. We present a two sector model with better and worse quality homes to describe the latter phenomena.
Áron Horváth: Increasing House Prices since 1995: Causes and Measurement [2008].
PhD thesis. Advisor: János Vincze
1995-2008 was a period of worldwide increases in house prices. The phenomenon was experienced in nearly all developed countries and the rate at which house prices increased was unprecedented in history. In my thesis I discuss the main properties and causes of the international events and in line with these events I explore the characteristics of Hungary’s housing market.
A Város- és ingatlangazdaságtan kurzus
A kurzus célja, hogy a hallgatók megismerjék a leggyakoribb ingatlanpiaci kérdéseket, képessé váljanak döntések előkészítésében való közreműködésre, és kritikusan tudják értékelni a szektorális elemzéseket. A kurzus az ingatlanpiac hosszú távú alakulásának vizsgálatával, a városok közgazdasági elemzésével indul. A második részben az ingatlanpiac ciklikus elemzéséről esik szó, végül összefoglalásként ingatlanpiaci projektek értékelésével zárunk.
A kurzus bemutatja, hogy a szakirodalom milyen közgazdasági eszköztárat kínál a gyakorló döntéshozóknak (ingatlanpiaci fejlesztőknek, befektetőknek, városirányítási szakembereknek).