Residential Real Estate

FHB House Price Index (2009-)

Analyses are continuously appeared related to FHB Index , in which we take part as the exclusive research partner of the FHB Index

We developed and established the FHB House Price Index, and calculate new values on a quarterly basis. The index is based on the international standards of the hedonic method. Previous analyses can be downloaded from the website of the FHB Index.

The website of the FHB Index.

The latest issue available here.

 

Otthontérkép

Online application

Otthontérkép is the newest search engine for homes in Hungary, where users could access to different information regarding the chosen home's neighborhood. ELTINGA is actively participating in the development of Otthontérkép.

The website of Otthontérkép.

 

Conference presentation and paper: Explaining changes in transaction volumes in Hungarian settlements during the crisis

Presentation and paper for the ERES 2013 Conference

We presented our recent work in progress at the European Real Estate Society's annual conference in Vienna.

The slides and the paper is available here.

 

Conference presentation and paper: How does an increase in energy efficiency affect housing prices? A case study of a renovation

Presentation and paper for the ERES 2013 Conference

We presented ELTINGA's Working Paper 2013/1 at the European Real Estate Society's annual conference in Vienna.

The slides and the paper is available here.

 

Lili Márk: The Effect of Highways on Nearby Residential Property Prices in Hungary 

MA thesis in the CEU Economics MA Program

This thesis analyzes the effect of the new sectors of highway M6 on the nearby residential property prices using the difference-in-differences method. In particular I compare prices between 2008 and 2011. My treatment group consists of those properties that are at most 10 km away from the highway and the control group includes all properties further away but for which highway M6 is the closest highway route. I find that the selling price of properties in the treatment group after the opening of the highway is around 11-15% higher compared to the control group. Using a restricted sample without the two big county capitals in my sample (Pécs and Szekszárd) I find that the “highway premium” is even higher being around 24-27%. I also estimate continuous treatment models that yield much less robust results.

The thesis could be downloaded here. 

  

How does an increase in energy efficiency affect housing prices? A case study of a renovation.

The second publication in our Working Paper Series

This paper presents a case study from Hungary on the effect of greater energy efficiency on residential housing prices, using a dataset on real estate transactions. The sample consists of all transactions from 2003 to mid-2012 in a treatment and a control group in Budapest's third district. The paper uses a difference-in-differences framework to test whether prices n a large block of flats - the largest in Hungary - which underwent major energy-efficiency related renovation developed differently following the renovation than prices in comparable, neighbouring blocks. Our results show that the renovation resulted in prices 9.42% higher than they would have been absent the renovation, which amounts to over 1 million Hungarian forints on the average flat. This can be contrasted with around 70 thousand forints in yearly energy savings and the 1.3 million forint cost of the renovation per flat. The latter implies that outside funding may also be required to make investment into energy-efficient renovation worthwhile.

The paper could be downloaded here.

 

Miklós Farkas: Housing Demand and Demographic Trends: Evidence from Hungary [2011].

Award winning MA thesis in the CEU Economics MA Program

This paper investigates the demand for housing in Hungary, focusing on the consequences of a contracting age structure. Demographic trends can influence demand in two ways, namely, by changing total population and by changing age structure. The study first introduces the baseline model of housing demand and then estimates it using panel econometric techniques. Age structure is proxied by the share of young adults in the population and is added to the model as a demand shifter. The results suggest that the price and income elasticities of housing demand are at least one third (in absolute value), while even cautious estimates suggest that shrinking population and aging will, ceteris paribus, cause real house prices to decrease by 10% in the present decade.

The thesis is available here.

 

Áron Horváth and Gyöngyi Körmendi: Changes in domestic housing prices [2009].

Background Study of the National Bank of Hungary’s (MNB) Report on Financal Stability 2009

From the newly published FHB index it can be seen that from the beginning of the century until the end of 2008 Hungarian real estate prices increased in real terms by 15%. Available information suggests that prices stagnated during the last quarter of 2008 and there was a mild decrease of about 6% in prices in the first half of 2009. Since the global financial crisis the decrease in domestic real estate prices can be said to be moderate in international comparison. Mainly Baltic states experienced extreme declines in housing prices besides Bulgaria, Ukraine and some developed countries.

Download from MNB's homepage. 

 

Áron Horváth and Judit Székely: Application of the Hedonic Method Determining Prices of Used Real Estates [2009].

Hungarian Statistical Review, 6: 594-607, 2009.

The authors examine alternative hedonic techniques for calculating price indices of existing homes. Three indices are presented based on transactions of 2001–2008. Although few attributes are available in the database, significant composition effects can be filtered out with the used hedonic methods. The authors find negligible differences among indices calculated by these techniques.

The paper is available here.

 

Methodological Guide for FHB Housing Price Index [2009].

The FHB housing price index was developed in collaboration with FHB and its methodology is similar to the most cited international indices.

Download from FHB's homepage.

 

Áron Horváth: On the Methodology of Real Estate Price Indexes [2007].

Hungarian Statistical Review, 3: 213-239, 2007. 

This article surveys the methodology of creating a house-price index. Descriptive statistics, repeated sales, hedonic prices, hybrid indices and sales appraisal ratios are studied. The methods are presented with British and U.S. examples. To foster the development of Hungarian house-price indices, detailed comparisons of the various indices are given. It seems that there is not much digression in the long run trends of different indices, however the difference is significant in the short run. This general statement is demonstrated on a Hungarian database collected from advertisements. In conclusion, in order to develop house price indices one must collect a careful and detailed database. Then, more than one index, based on different methodologies, should be constructed and published.

only available in Hungarian

 

Dániel Erdélyi and Áron Horváth: On increasing house prices [2007]. 

Külgazdaság, 9-10: 19-40, 2007.

House prices increased substantially around the world between 1995 and 2008. The macroeconomic interpretation of the real estate market gained ground in the past 15 years. We identify the main causes of the trend and more importantly we give an overview of the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the real estate market.

only available in Hungarian

 

Áron Horváth and János Vincze: Recent Developments in the Hungarian Housing Market; A Model with Quality Differential [2007].

Working paper for the first annual conference of the Hungarian Society of Economics 

In this paper we study the developments of the Hungarian home market. We show that the global house price boom was present in Hungary and the price increase can be explained by the increase of income, the softening credit constraints and the installation of the governmental subsidy system. We complement the observation of the recent halt of the house price rise with the further rise of the better quality homes. We present a two sector model with better and worse quality homes to describe the latter phenomena. 

The paper could be downloaded here. 

 

Áron Horváth: Increasing House Prices since 1995: Causes and Measurement [2008].

PhD thesis. Advisor: János Vincze

1995-2008 was a period of worldwide increases in house prices. The phenomenon was experienced in nearly all developed countries and the rate at which house prices increased was unprecedented in history. In my thesis I discuss the main properties and causes of the international events and in line with these events I explore the characteristics of Hungary’s housing market.

Download the English language thesis resume.



 

Fel